Accelerating resiliency planning in communities across the Commonwealth

Search

Future Sea Level and Recurrent Flooding Risk for Coastal Virginia

Home » Infrastructure and Buildings » Future Sea Level and Recurrent Flooding Risk for Coastal Virginia

Future Sea Level and Recurrent Flooding Risk for Coastal Virginia

Home » Infrastructure and Buildings » Future Sea Level and Recurrent Flooding Risk for Coastal Virginia

Future Sea Level and Recurrent Flooding Risk for Coastal VirginiaThe report presents analysis of the best available existing data on coastal land elevation, sea level rise projections, vertical land motion (subsidence), and building and transportation assets.

Sea level rise (SLR) projections are analyzed as Relative SLR (RSLR), combining the effects of vertical water rise (or “eustatic” change) with regional trends in vertical land motion, or subsidence. The study made use of available Commonwealth LiDAR elevation data, buildings, and roads as well as several sources of federal data, including sea level trends, tidal flooding and datums, and peer-reviewed and government reports. Maps of potential future inundation provided here represent a baseline assessment of impacts to land areas, including wetlands, parcels and development, roadways and buildings within the Commonwealth.

The total area at risk with RSLR in coastal Virginia is 424 square miles in 2040, 534 square miles in 2060, and 649 square miles in 2080. An additional 144 square miles will be vulnerable to minor tidal flooding by the year 2040, with similar areas of impact for 2060 and 2080. The total length of roadway potentially affected by RSLR and tidal flooding is 545 miles in 2040, 972 miles in 2060, and 1762 miles in 2080. The total number of buildings potentially affected by RSLR and tidal flooding is 30,795 in 2040, 57,740 in 2060, and 111,545 in 2080. Hampton Roads, the Eastern Shore, and the Middle Peninsula are the most severely and critically impacted. Additional metrics describing the potential risk from RSLR, minor (tidal) flooding, and moderate flood events can be found in the body of this report.

Impacted parcels, buildings, and roads are tabulated and presented in a series of charts, tables, and maps delimited by Planning District Commissions across coastal Virginia. The maps and related digital data promote sub-regional comparison and provide these organizations and municipalities a spatial product for first-order risk assessment and planning. Maps and tables are provided digitally in this report are also available as digital geospatial data for local spatial planning. The report further outlines inherent limitations and future improvements in the available data and emerging methods and scientific understanding to reduce uncertainty.

Click here to view the resource.

Become a Member
Become a Sponsor
Become a Volunteer

Sign Up for E-News

Get news and notifications from Resilient Virginia.

The Resilience Calendar

  • Mapping Mitigation Actions, Implementing Strategy
    Date: September 3, 2025
    Location: Virtual

    This is a FEMA Region 3 Coffee Break Webinar

    Learn more and register More details...

  • 2025 Regional Science Symposium
    Date: September 9, 2025
    Location: Renaissance Asheville Downtown Hotel, 31 Woodfin St, Asheville, NC 28801, USA

    The 2025 SE CASC Regional Science Symposium will be held September 9-11, 2025, at the Renaissance Hotel in Downtown Asheville, NC.

    Learn more and register here.

  • West Virginia Brownfields & Main Street Conference
    Date: September 9, 2025
    Location: Morgantown Marriott at Waterfront Place, Two Waterfront Pl, Morgantown, WV 26501, USA

    The WV Brownfields & Main Street Conference is West Virginia’s premier redevelopment event with sessions and workshops on brownfields redevelopment and downtown revitalization in rural communities.

    Learn more and register

  • Community Conversations for Appalachian Regional Commission’s New Strategic Plan
    Date: September 9, 2025
    Location: Virtual

    Every five years, ARC works with its federal, state and community partners on a strategic plan that guides our investments throughout Appalachia’s 13-state, 423-county region. Their current strategic plan expires next year, so…

Latest News & Resources

Where Resilience Meets Reality: Highlights from the 2025 Resilient Virginia Conference

Over 200 leaders, experts, and community advocates gathered at James Madison University this July for the 2025 Resilient Virginia Conference, themed “Moving Virginia Forward.” The two-day event offered a powerful mix of strategic insights, grassroots innovation, and hands-on learning—from climate-smart infrastructure and equity-driven planning to immersive experiences like the Science on a Sphere and FIRST Chesapeake’s “Robot Petting Zoo.”

Read More »